Climate Change

Application to the European Airline Industry
We recently applied the ‘Scenario Matrix’ tool to the European Airline Industry in a scenario
study written from the perspective of European Network carriers. The two key uncertainties
identified are ‘degree of regulation of the industry in Europe’ and ‘price sensitivity of the
customer base’. Afterwards, we conducted a workshop with industry experts to develop four
industry scenarios. In this workshop each uncertainty was placed on one axis of the matrix
Center for Scenario Planning – Roland Berger Research Unit
13 respectively and given a more positive and a more negative connotation – positive and
negative from the perspective of the companies for which the scenario analysis was done, in
this case European network carriers like Lufthansa, Air France-KLM or British Airways. In
terms of the ‘degree of regulation of the industry in Europe’, the positive development is a
‘protectionist regulation of the industry in Europe’ and the negative development an ‘open
regulation of the industry in Europe’. In terms of the ‘price sensitivity of the customer base’,
the positive development is a ‘decreasing price sensitivity of the customer base’ and the
negative development an ‘increasing price sensitivity of the customer base’. Afterwards,
each scenario was given a concise and easily memorable name (Figure 4).
Each name symbolizes the various developments within the scenario, e.g. ‘Europe under
Siege’ represents European Network Carriers having to deal with a very open regulation of
their industry while at the same time experiencing a decreasing price sensitivity of its
customer base. Hence, due to the open regulation their home market is under attack by
airlines from outside Europe while the whole market is benefiting from a consumer’s
willingness to pay more for flights.