BP (2012) stated that in 2011 global oil consumption has increased 0. 7 per cent to reach 88 million BOPD. Despite the fact that the consumption is not picturing a significant amount of growth, according to UNCTAD (2012), in the same period crude oil load capacity reached 1. 8 billion tons and has an account for approximately one third of the total world seaborne trade. Meanwhile, global consumption of coal has increased significantly in the same period. As BP (2012) mentioned in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012, coal has grew by 5. per cent, which is the only fossil fuel that increased above the average and the fastest growing energy outside renewable energy. Coal trade across countries are also illustrated remarkable growth. Between year 1999 and 2011 in tonne mile unit coal trade has risen 67 per cent to a number of 2196 tonne miles (UNCTAD, 2012). Furthermore, another energy source that has a very promising prospect to the world seaborne trade is LNG. LNG is the third sources of energy most consumed globally, after oil and coal. This type of nergy has shown a considerable escalation in the last 10 years. Since 2000, LNG consumption has grown by over 30 per cent (BP, 2012).
Likewise, from 1999 to 2011, LNG seaborne trade has escalated way more significant, which reach the number of 258 per cent (UNCTAD, 2012). Lastly, the other prospectus energy that possibly able to provide sustainability to the world energy and could play a greater role in the future is non fossil fuel energy especially renewable energy. Currently, this type of energy has an account of 2. per cent of world energy consumption, which has risen from 0. 7 per cent in 2001 (BP, 2012). In present time, the contribution of this energy may not be very significant to world seaborne energy trade but with the steady growth and declining of oil reserves as the main sources of energy, renewable energy is reckoned to contribute more in the future and it might affected to the world seaborne energy trade. With all the facts aforementioned, it is important to generate a projection on how the energy consumption and production proportion is distributed in the future.
Since seaborne transport business is a derives demand, it is essential to predict the development of the commodity, in this case is energy, in order to have a general picture of the energy seaborne transport business in the future. It is therefore, this essay will examine the development of this issue, which will focus on crude oil, coal, LNG, and renewable energy transport business especially in the year of 2030. 2. GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION 2030 Demand of energy production that leads to energy transportation is mainly affected by the amount of its consumption.
According to BP (2012) energy consumption driven by two main aspects that are population and income (GDP). In the year 2030, world population is projected to grow by 1. 4 billion, which is 0. 9 per cent per annum. Growth of GDP are also display a similar trends. Driven by low and medium income economies, the growth in the next 20 years is projected to accelerate reach the number of 3. 7 per cent, raising from 3. 2 per cent in the 1990-2010 period. However, increase in population and GDP growth is not necessarily surge the primary energy consumption.
As expressed in BP Energy Outlook 2030 (BP, 2012), primary energy consumption growth from 2010 to 2030, which dominated by the supply of crude oil production, is decelerated to 1. 6 per cent compared to 2. 0 per cent between 1990 and 2010. The main factor to this is major decline of world crude oil reserves by that year. Another factor that has emerged this situation is global improvement of energy efficiency, especially for OECD countries that shifting the utilisation of oil to renewable for road transportation and change from coal to the same type energy in power generation.
Despite the deceleration, primary energy still has a substantial account to the entire world energy consumption. The proportion of primary energy consumption and world primary energy shares between 2010 and 2030 show in the graph below. As presented in figure 1, the majority of total global energy consumption still contributed by the primary energy, which consist of crude oil, coal, and LNG. In 2030, these three main energy commodities are project to be consumed over 12billion TOE (tonne of oil equivalent) globally, which approximately 70 per cent of total energy consumed.
Moreover, from the graph it can be seen the development of each form of energy illustrating a different tendency. Crude oil as the most consumable energy in the last 20 years is not display a significant development. Decline in its reserves cause the crude oil no longer provide sustainability to global consumer. However, the amount of oil consumed in 2030 is reasonably immense and still provide a great contribution to the global consumer with a little less than 30 per cent (figure 2).
On the other hand, the development of the other two primary energies is considerably high. Gas particularly, is predicted to grow steadily in the next 20 years and become the fastest growing fuel fossils. As can be seen in the figure 2, gas supply share to the world’s energy consumption will reach over 20 per cent by 2030. The gas supply to the global energy consumer will be represented by grow fasting LNG supply, which reach the number of 4. 5 per cent per annum faster than total gas supply (2. 1 per cent).
Meanwhile, growth of global coal consumption is displaying a steady trend up until 2030 (figure 1). The coal consumption projected to increase until around 2020 but start to decline afterwards with China as the main consumer of this energy end their rapid consumption. Nevertheless, by 2030 coal overtake oil on the world primary energy share (figure 2). Moreover, the consumption of non fossil fuel energy in 2030 is projected to grow massively (34 per cent) and will have a much larger proportion to the global energy consumption as can be seen in both figures.
Non fossil fuel, renewable in particular will be very important by that year as immense needs of sustainable power for electricity and transport fuel will emerge the development of this type of energy. 3. CRUDE OIL SEABORNE TRADE Aforementioned, the growth of crude oil demand will not have a significant improvement, which reflected on the consumption growth that only 0. 6 per cent annually between 2010 and 2030 (BP, 2012). This situation gives a serious impact to the crude oil tanker business.
Grossman et al (2006) expressed the perspective of crude oil tanker business in 2030 is shaded by the uncertainty. The high amount of oil price, declining reserves of crude oil and limitation in production capacity could affect the world crude oil trade. However, in spite of many uncertainties here and there, there are still some good trends concerning this business. One of the upsides is increase in transported distances, which will have several benefits especially for large size tanker vessel.
As declining of mature oil field reserves that have relatively close distance to the major importing countries and geopolitical problems on pipeline developments, the dependence of the importers to major producers in Africa and Middle East is extremely high. Grossman et al (2006) added in Maritime Trade and Transport Logistic Strategy 2030, the crude oil exports share of Middle East countries will raise to over 60 per cent, which means the tanker trade from there to major exporters will have the same trends.
Figure 3 below, present the crude oil trade flows in 2030 carry by tanker vessel. It can be seen that major importing countries especially in the Asia region have a massive dependence on crude oil trade from Middle East. China for instance, is projected to import the oil from Middle East for approximately 5. 9 million BPD (IEEJ, 2006), increase over 50 per cent from 2011 (EIA, 2012). The main factor of this is decline of China oil production to only 2 million BPD. Trends on decline in production capacity also occurred on other East Asia countries.
Accumulatively, other East Asian countries outside China and Japan only produced oil slightly over 2 million BPD, which forced them to import more, especially from Middle East region that reach 10. 6 million BPD. Meanwhile, Japan and India that traditionally are net importers of oil is predicted to import oil from Middle East for 3. 6 and 6. 6 million BPD, respectively. In total, Asian region projected to import almost 30 million BPD from Middle East Region in 2030. One of the effects of this situation is increment of crude oil tanker traffic around Strait of Malacca and Singapore.
As shown in the Figure 4, the number of VLCC passing this strait will increase up to 8646 almost doubled from 2010 and oil traded through this area reach 24. 7 million BPD, which on one hand is good for country’s income but on the other hand it will cause a reasonably intense congestion. Furthermore, US and Western Europe as the major market stakeholders for oil also depends on crude oil transportation. US particularly, despite they still produce considerably large amount of oil, they still have to import it from Middle East, Africa and Latin America because their production capacity is no longer fulfil the domestic market.
Total oil trade from those three regions reach slightly over 10 million BPD, which is still below their domestic production rate. Whilst, for Western European market, the dependence on seaborne oil trade from other region is not as a high as both US or Asian countries since they still have pipeline distribution from Eastern Europe, Russia especially. Furthermore, in the long term scenario, as production capacity will reach the peak number in this period, increment of the production rate is no longer able to satisfy the demand.
As a result, based on US Energy Information and National Resources Canada (2010) world crude oil price is predicted to climb up to average of $101 per barrel, which affected adversely to the existence of crude oil tanker market. Large size crude oil tanker especially, will suffered a greater impact than the small ones, since they purposely built in order to serve the large crude oil market. 4. WORLD COAL TRADE Coal is the commodity that plays a substantial role worldwide with the utilisation in almost every important sector of industry.
World Coal Institute (2011) stated that in the present time steam coal utilised in power generation, which has the 39 per cent proportion of the world’s electricity utilisation, whilst coking coal are mainly utilised for iron and steel production. According to IEA (2011) prior to 2030 the coal consumption will increase as much as 53 per cent and the apportionment mostly about 85 per cent will be contributed from China and India. It is predicted that even before 2015, China’s import will outweigh their exports, whilst India is traditionally a net importer of Coal.
Meanwhile in the producers point of view, Australia which represents 25 per cent of global trade will raise their production up to 30 per cent by 2030, which means if China and India will depends on seaborne transportations from producer like this country or other producers such as Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa. As a consequence of long distance of transportation and concerning the high cost of transport because of that, the coal trade worldwide is divided into two different regions of operation that are the Atlantic and the Pacific.
The Atlantic route serving the European market such as UK, Germany and Spain, whilst the Pacific consists of countries like China and India. The 2030 complete coal trade route is presented in the figure 7 below. Increment of global coal consumption and wide range of coal trade transported by seaborne transportation affect the amount of cargo carried by ships to serve the market. DNV (2009) estimated that in that year the number of Capesize coal bulk carriers load would reach 7000 ships increase from 4700 shiploads in 2006.
Additionally, significant increase in number of shipload consequently force the port authority to develop their infrastructure in order to for the ship to maintain the economy of scale of their operation. Therefore, the authority should invested large amount of money to develop their infrastructure. EXAMPLE. Even though it is important in raise the port capacity, not every country concern about this aspect. Australia, for instance, despite coal trade has an account of 23 per cent of total export and worth over A$ 52 billion a year, the government would not make an investment on that.
They insisted the state government or the company should cover that responsibility. 5. DEVELOPMENT OF LNG TRADE According to Bull (2012) world LNG trade in the year 2030 is forecasted to reach a significant amount compared to the current condition with the demand over 880 bcm by the end of that year. The growth of this commodity influenced by huge development on the gas field globally that were forced by country’s economic growth, which requires to improve energy structure and sustainability (He, 2005).
As BP explained in 2012 Statistical Review, natural gas has abundant reserves worldwide, therefore the utilisation of this type of energy specifically in the liquid form or LNG is expected to bring a better energy structure to the industry. Middle East still the major exporters supplemented by Asia Pacific countries lead by Indonesia and Australia (Bull, 2012). Qatar will expand their production through the years and is projected to be the LNG export hub in the region.
In addition, Iran also has the potential to be the leading country of LNG exporter but the current sanction applied to the oil trade and high tension in the Strait of Hormuz will potentially lead to other seaborne trade sanction in that area and prohibit them to trade globally. Moreover, the development on new facilities in Indonesia and myriad in Australia could generate this region to be the world leading exporter with the capacity forecasted to reach 238 bcm. In the import perspective, European and East Asian countries such as Japan and Korea still a primary market.
In Europe, countries like Spain, UK, and France still top producers, whilst Sweden, Poland, and the Netherland expected to join the market. Total demand forecast of this region is predicted to reach up to 300 bcm. Meanwhile, Eastern Asia has a total demand of 330 bcm by the end of this period with Japan and Korea will remain the largest LNG consumer. China is following them with the high growth rate of demand. Aforementioned, by the end of this period total LNG trade will reach the number of 880 bcm, which is a very large number compared with the 2011 condition that only 310 bcm.
Export will mostly contributed from Qatar and Australia, whilst large-scale demand will be from Asian Countries and new developed LNG importer such as Sweden and Poland. The complete of LNG trade flows 2030 presented in figure 5 below. With high forecast of LNG trade in the future and according to DIW (2009) as they presented in the Figure 5, the trade is very likely involving countries from different regions with a long distance of trade, therefore the requirements for LNG fleet is inevitable.
Emirates247 (2008) projected the number of LNG tanker fleet will reach 700 ships that year and Bull (2012) predict in more optimistic approach with the projection approximately 900 number of ships. This figure 6 below presented the development of LNG fleet from 2011 to 2030 according to Bull’s projection. With that high number and steady growth through the years, it is very unlikely to scrap this type of ship and it is very potential to make the investment on this ship regarding high demand of LNG in the future. 6. SEABORNE BIOFUEL BUSINESS PROSPECTS 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION